BRINGING IT THROUGH THE FRONT DOOR IN A TEA SPOON AND THROWING IT OUT THE BACK DOOR WITH A SHOVEL

BRINGING IT THROUGH THE FRONT DOOR IN A TEA SPOON ANND THROWING IT OUT THE BACK DOOR WITH A SHOVEL. THIS IS AN EXPRESSION MY MOTHER USED TO REINTERATE HER POINT ABOUT SPENDING MORE THAT YOU EARNED. IN HER EXAMPLE SHE WAS ALWAYS ANTI-DEBT AND THOUGHT CREDIT CARDS WERE MADE IN THE DEVIL'S WORKSHOP.

SHE WASN'T A RELIGIOUS ZEALOT AS SHE ALSO BELIEVED THE DEVIL'S FAVORITE RECRUITING GROUNDS WERE THE FRONT ROWS OF CHURCHS'S PEWS. TO THAT END SHE WAS A CLEAR HEADED INDEPENDENTED MINDED WOMAN WHO RELIED ON HER MOTHER WIT TO NAVIGATE THE PERILS AND CHALLENGES OF DAILY LIFE IN AMERICA.

I ASKED HER WHAT SHE THOUGHT OF ALL OF THAT MONEY BANKS WERE LOSING? I INFORMED HER THAT BANKS IN AMERICA WERE RECENTLY INFORMED BY FEDERAL REGULATORS ABOUT A RECENTLY COMPLETED TEST CALLED THE NATIONAL SHARED EXAM.

THIS EXAM EVALUATED THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF BIG LOANS; THOSE OVER $ 20 MILLION IN SIZE AND FINANCED BY THREE OR MORE BANKS. ACCORDING TO THE FEDS AN ESTIMATED $ 53 BILLION OF THIS DEBT WAS IN TROUBLE. MOTHER REPLIED BY ASKING; HOW CAN COMPANIES OR BANKS STAY IN BUSINESSS LOSING THAT KIND OF MONEY?

I INFORMED HER THAT I THOUGHT OVER 1500-2000 BANKS WERE GOING TO FAIL OVER THE NEXT 18 MONTHS IN AMERICA, MY REASONS FOR THIS ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON THESE FACTS. THE FIVE LARGEST BANKS IN AMERICA HAVE LOST APPROXIMATELY $ 350 BILLION OF MARKET CAPITALIZATION SINCE 2007. THIS AMOUNT REPRESENTS AN APPROXIMATE 40% DROP IN MARKET VALUE FOR THESE BANKS ALONE.

EXTRAPOLATION OUT TO SOME OF THE SMALLER BANKS ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM; I BELIEVE A CASE CAN BE MADE FOR 1500-2000 MORE BANKS FAILURES  OVER THE NEXT 18-24 MONTHS. THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF FUTHER EXACERBATION OF THESE BANKS PROBLEMS WILL BE OVER LEVERAGED COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE.

THIS COUPLED WITH THE LACK OF AVAILABLE CREDIT FROM INSURANCE COMPANIES, PENSIONS AND ENDOWMENTS MEANS THINGS ARE GOING TO GET ROUGHER FOR BANKS IN GENERAL AND THE MONEY LENDING BUSINESS IN PARTICULAR.

THE FAILURE OF THESE BANK WILL RESULT FROM LOAN LOSSES ON COMMERICAL REAL ESTATE AND IT'S TOO OFTEN IGNORED AND NEVER MENTIONED UGLY HALF SISTER CALLED HEDGE FUNDS. THESE FACTS LEAD ME TO PREDICT A DROP IN THE DOW JONES. THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE WILL TRADE IN THE RANGE 3600-4245 OVER TTHE NEXT 18-24 MONTHS.

WE  ARRIVED AT THIS TRADING RANGE BY USING SOME NUMBERS THAT WE ASSIGNED TO SOME FACTORS IMPACTING THE ECONOMY. SUCH AS THE GENERAL FEAR FACTOR IN THE GENERAL PUBLIC, FRAUD CLEAN UP, ENFORCEMENT  OF EXISTING LAWS. ALSO THE GENERAL LACK OF HONESTY IN THE QUALITY OF MOST LOANS ON BANKS BOOKS. PARTICULAR WHEN YOU EVALUATE THE QUALITY OF MOST COMMERICIAL REAL ESTATE LOANS WITHOUT THE REQUIREMENTS OF MARKING TO THE MARKET.

HERE ARE OUR PROJECTIONS BASED ON THE DOW TRADING AT TODAY'S 9725
AT THE TIME OF THE WRITTING OF THIS ARTICLE; WITH 25% OF AMERICA'S GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BEING FINANCIAL SERVICES .WE BELIEVE THE VALUE OF MOST OF THAT PAPER WILL BE WRITTEN DOWN REALISTICALLY BY 25-50%. WE'LL TAKE THE LOW END TO AVOID STROKING OUT OUR READERS.
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AS 9-28-09                                             9725
DEDUCTIONS FOR QUALITY OF THE PAPER LOANS
AND FINANCIAL SERVICES IN THE
TOTAL ECONOMY                          (9725 X.25%)=                            -2431
DOW SUBTOTAL                                                                                   7294
FRAUD CLEAN UP ABD ENFORCEMENT OF
EXISTING LAWS                              (7295 X .15%)                             -1192
DOW SUBTOTAL                                                                                   6102
HEDGE FUNDS FAILURE                 (6102 X .15%)                              -915
DOW SUBTOTAL                                                                                   5187
FEAR & MARKET PANIC INDEX    (5187 X 15%)                              -777
DOW SUBTOTAL                                                                                   4410
FRUSTRATION FACTOR LOSS OF CONFIDENCE
BECAUSE 0F 300-500 HEDGE FUNDS FAILURES     
4-6 FORTUNE  500 COMPANIES FILING FOR
BANKRUPTCY OVER NEXT 18-24 MONTHS   (4410 X .10%)         -441
DOW SUBTOTAL                                                                                  3979
HIGH PROFILE ARREST OF SEVERAL CEO'S
FOR INSIDER TRADING                (3979 X .10)                                   -379
DOW TRADING 18-24 MONTHS                                                          3582

THIS LEVEL CAN BE BROKEN IF THE NEWS OF THE CEO'S BREAKS ON WEDNESDAY OR AFTER. NO ONE WILL WANT TO OWN STOCK OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT FOREIGN BANKS HOLD APPROXIMATELY 38% OF THE $ 2.9 TRILLION DOLLARS THAT WAS INCLUDED IN THIS SURVEY.

GIVING BANKS VERY FEW PLACES TO HIDE OR PLACES TO BORROW EXCEPT THE FEDS; WITH THE GROWING ANTI-GOVERNMENT SENTIMENT APPEARING IN THE PUBLIC AND THE SHORTAGE OF AMMUNITION THAT EXISTS IN AMERICA WE BELIEVE OUR 3600 MARK ON THE DOW MIGHT PROVE GENEROUS.

WITH THE LOSSES HEADING OUT THE BACK DOOR OF THESE BANKS; IT'S GOING TO BE DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW THESE UNEMPLOYMENT CHECKS DEPOSITED IN MOST BANKS WILL STOP THE CAPITAL DRAINS. MAYBE MOTHER WAS RIGHT, YOU CAN'T BRING IT THROUGH THE FRONT DOOR IN A TEA SPOON AND THROW IT OUT THE BACK DOOR WITH A SHOVEL AND STAY IN BUSINESS. WE DID SAY 1500-2000 BANKS WILL NOT BE HERE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 MONTHS.

MAYBE, INVESTORS BEST DECISIONS ARE TO BUY A LITTLE GOLD AND STAY LIQUID. AMERICA IS GOING TO FEEL THE REAL DEFINITION OF A LOST GENERATION. AN ORDERLY LIQUIDATION OF YOUR PORTFOLIO MIGHT BE IN ORDER. REMEMBER YOU CAN CORRECT ALL YOU MISTAKES WITH CASH BUT NOT IN THE WRONG STOCKS AT THE WRONG TIME IN THE MARKET. IT'S OKAY TO LET MONEY REST EVERY ONCE IN A WHILE; REMEMBER HAVE AND NOT NEED RATHER THAN NEED AND NOT HAVE.


BROKE ENOUGH/ FINAANCIAL VOODOO # 1894709
STARTED:09-29-09@11:00am-1:34pm*EML
WRITTEN BY: BROKE ENOUGH, ASCAP
PUBLISHED BY: OTHERNESS & WELLSPRINGS, LTD
BONNER BROTHERS BROADCASTINGS GROUP, INC. ASCAP (c)